When the Los Angeles Lakers host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, at the Target Center in Minneapolis, it won’t be the star-studded showdown fans expected. With LeBron James and Luka Doncic sidelined for the Lakers, and Anthony Edwards out for at least two weeks with a hamstring injury, the spotlight shifts to the supporting cast — and the betting markets have taken notice.
Without Superstars, the Game Becomes a Battle of Role Players
This isn’t just another early-season matchup. It’s a stress test for two Western Conference contenders trying to stay afloat without their franchise cornerstones. The Lakers, at 2-2, have shown grit despite losing James and Doncic — but their offense has become a one-man show. Austin Reaves has exploded for 92 points in his last two games, including a 41-point performance Monday night that still wasn’t enough to beat Portland. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are 2-2 but reeling from a 13-point home loss to Denver on October 27. Without Edwards, their offensive engine, they’ve had to lean harder on Jaden McDaniels — and he’s responded.
McDaniels has averaged 24.5 points over his last four games without Edwards, according to Covers.com. That’s not a fluke. It’s a transformation. He’s gone from defensive specialist to go-to scorer, hitting threes, driving with purpose, and finishing at the rim with confidence. Analysts are calling it the most underrated offensive evolution in the league this season.
Player Prop Bets That Stand Out
With the game’s total set between 224.5 and 225.5 points across sportsbooks — and Minnesota favored by 7 to 7.5 points — the best value lies in individual performances, not the outcome.
- Jaden McDaniels Over 16.5 Points (-115): Multiple outlets — including Covers.com, FanDuel Research, and Action Network — flag this as the top bet. He’s cleared 16.5 in 10 of his last 12 games, and with Edwards out, his usage rate has spiked. He’s also shooting 42% from deep over that span.
- Rui Hachimura Over 14.5 Points: As reported by Action Network, Hachimura’s efficiency has improved with more touches in the post and mid-range. He’s averaged 17.2 points in the last three games without Doncic.
- Austin Reaves Under 30.5 Points: Yes, he’s on fire. But he’s also been forced into a 25+ shot role, and Minnesota’s perimeter defense — led by Mike Conley and Jordan McLaughlin — is among the league’s best at forcing tough shots. He scored 41 on Monday, but it came against a depleted Portland team. Expect fatigue and tighter defense here.
- Julius Randle Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds (-108): Randle’s been a machine on the boards and in the paint, averaging 34.1 points and 11.3 rebounds in his last four. Minnesota’s interior defense is thin without Edwards and with Karl-Anthony Towns out for the season. This could be his breakout game.
Even the three-point prop on McDaniels — Over 1.5 threes (-115) — is worth considering. He’s hit at least two in six of his last seven games. This isn’t just volume shooting; it’s rhythm.
Why the Odds Are So Tight — And Why They Shouldn’t Be
The spread has drifted from -7.5 to -7.0 across books, but the market still favors Minnesota. Why? Depth. Even without Edwards, the Timberwolves have McDaniels, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Naz Reid forming a more balanced attack. The Lakers? Reaves is carrying the load, but Marcus Smart is questionable with a quad injury, and their bench has been outscored by 12.3 points per 100 possessions this season.
“They’ve been competitive,” said The Lines’ Nick Crain, “but they’re running on fumes. Doncic and James were their playmaking engines. Now they’re asking Reaves to be both scorer and creator — and that’s unsustainable.”
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves’ defense has improved under coach Chris Finch, who’s adjusted rotations to give more minutes to veterans like Conley and Malik Beasley. They’ve held opponents under 110 points in two of their last three games.
What This Means for the Season
This game isn’t just about who wins on Wednesday. It’s a signal for the rest of the season. If McDaniels keeps scoring 24-plus without Edwards, Minnesota could still be a top-4 seed. If Reaves breaks down under the weight of being the sole offensive weapon, the Lakers’ playoff hopes could crumble before Thanksgiving.
And then there’s the projection models. CBS Sports referenced the SportsLine Projection Model, which has gone 161-120 on its top-rated NBA picks this season and nailed 69% of its spread bets last year. Their algorithm gives Minnesota a 62% win probability — not because they’re dominant, but because the Lakers have no clear path to victory without their stars.
What’s Next?
By next week, both teams will face tougher tests: the Lakers host Phoenix on Friday, while Minnesota travels to Golden State. But Wednesday’s game will set the tone. If McDaniels drops 25, the narrative shifts from “Can they survive without Edwards?” to “Can they compete without him?” If Reaves scores 35 and loses again, the Lakers’ season may be defined by heroics — not championships.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Jaden McDaniels’ performance without Anthony Edwards compare to other players in NBA history?
McDaniels’ 24.5-point average over four games without Edwards is among the highest for a secondary star stepping up in modern NBA history. Only players like Pascal Siakam in 2019 (without Kawhi Leonard) and Jayson Tatum in 2021 (without Kyrie Irving) matched similar scoring spikes under comparable circumstances. What sets McDaniels apart is his efficiency — he’s shooting 51% from the field and 42% from three, making his rise sustainable.
Why is Austin Reaves being recommended as an Under bet despite his recent scoring explosion?
Reaves’ 41-point game came against a Portland team missing their top two defenders. Minnesota’s perimeter defense is far more disciplined, with Mike Conley and Jordan McLaughlin averaging 1.8 steals per game combined. Reaves is also averaging 11.5 shot attempts per game in the last week — unsustainable without Doncic’s playmaking. His efficiency will drop, and Minnesota will force him into contested mid-range jumpers.
Is the Timberwolves’ -7.5 spread fair given Edwards’ absence?
Yes. Even without Edwards, Minnesota’s bench depth, defensive structure, and McDaniels’ offensive explosion give them a clear edge. The Lakers have no secondary playmaker, and their defense ranks 23rd in the league. The spread reflects not just talent, but system cohesion. Minnesota has won six of its last eight games when favored by 7 or more, even without their stars.
What’s the most likely final score based on current trends?
Based on pace, shooting efficiency, and injury-adjusted stats, the most likely outcome is a 118-111 Timberwolves win. McDaniels would score 26, Randle 28, and Reaves 29 — just under the 30.5 line. The total would land at 229, just above the 225.5 over/under, making the over a narrow winner.
Could Marcus Smart’s potential return change the game’s outcome?
If Smart plays, he’d provide critical perimeter defense and ball-handling, but his quad injury is still questionable. Even if he returns, he’s unlikely to play 30+ minutes, and his offensive impact is limited. He’s not a scorer — he’s a disruptor. His presence might slow Reaves slightly, but it won’t fix the Lakers’ lack of secondary creation.
What’s the historical advantage between these two teams in recent matchups?
The Lakers won the last meeting 128-110 in October 2025 — a game where Luka Doncic dropped 49 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists. That was the last time both teams were at full strength. Since then, the injury landscape has flipped: Minnesota lost Edwards, and the Lakers lost James and Doncic. The old matchup history no longer applies — this is a completely new dynamic.
Written by Gareth O'Dell
View all posts by: Gareth O'Dell