The Kansas City Chiefs are staring down the barrel of their first non-playoff season in over a decade — and it’s not because they’re outplayed. It’s because they lost to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
On November 27, 2024, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, the Chiefs fell 31-28 to a Cowboys team that entered the game with a losing record. The loss wasn’t just a setback — it was a seismic shift. Playoff odds, once hovering near 52%, collapsed to 35% overnight, according to the New York Times NFL playoff simulator. ESPN’s Football Power Index echoed the same grim projection. For a franchise that’s made the playoffs every year since 2014, this isn’t just a bad week. It’s a crisis.
What Changed After the Loss?
Before Thursday’s game, the Chiefs were viewed as a near-lock for the postseason. Analysts like Jackson Durham of the Chiefs Report by Chat Sports were citing over 60% odds. Win that game, and those odds jumped to 61%. But lose? And suddenly, you’re in a dogfight with the AFC’s deepest pack of contenders.
The numbers don’t lie. DraftKings, the New York City-based sportsbook, now has the Chiefs at -120 to miss the playoffs — meaning bettors are putting more money on failure than success. That’s a sign. Not just of public sentiment, but of how sharp money sees it: the Chiefs’ ten-year playoff streak is in serious jeopardy.
Patrick Mahomes, the 28-year-old quarterback who’s carried this team through three Super Bowl wins, didn’t sugarcoat it. "We have to win every single game left," he told reporters. "And even then… we’re hoping for help." That’s not the tone of a team confident in its destiny. It’s the voice of a team clinging to a thread.
The Path to Survival
Here’s the brutal truth: unless the Chiefs win all five remaining games, their playoff chances vanish. A 10-7 record? Probably not enough. The tiebreakers are a nightmare. They’ve already lost to three teams currently in the AFC wild card conversation: the Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, and Jacksonville Jaguars. In any tiebreaker scenario, Kansas City loses. Every time.
Winning out — five straight — pushes their playoff probability to 96%, per the New York Times simulator. But it’s not just about winning. It’s about timing. Lose in Week 13 (like they did)? Your odds drop to 79%. Lose in Week 14 or 15? They fall to 68%. Even a win in Week 16 doesn’t fully recover the damage. The clock is ticking faster than anyone expected.
Here’s their remaining schedule:
- December 7: Houston Texans (home, 8:20 p.m. ET)
- December 14: Los Angeles Chargers (home, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- December 21: Tennessee Titans (road, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- December 25: Denver Broncos (home, 8:15 p.m. ET)
- January 4, 2025: Las Vegas Raiders (road, TBD)
Three home games. Two road tests. One Christmas Day thriller. No easy outs. And every game carries the weight of a dynasty’s legacy.
Andy Reid’s Legacy on the Line
Head coach Andy Reid, 65, has been the steady hand behind this era. Since taking over in 2013, he’s never missed the playoffs. Not once. Not even when the team was rebuilding. Not even when Mahomes was a rookie. Now, he’s facing the unthinkable: his first season without postseason football in 12 years.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell put it bluntly in a November 2024 piece: "Is this the year the Chiefs finally fall?" The question isn’t rhetorical anymore. It’s urgent. Reid’s offensive genius has carried them through injuries, suspensions, and even a pandemic. But this isn’t about scheme. It’s about execution — and consistency.
And here’s the twist: the defense, long the Achilles’ heel, is showing signs of life. But it’s not enough. Not when Mahomes is throwing two interceptions in a critical game. Not when the offensive line gives up four sacks in the fourth quarter. Not when the special teams allow a 78-yard punt return that shifts momentum.
What’s Next?
The Chiefs aren’t out. But they’re running out of room. The next two weeks — home against Houston and then Los Angeles — are make-or-break. Beat the Texans? Maybe the momentum shifts. Lose? The panic will be deafening.
Meanwhile, the AFC wild card race is a three-team scrum between the Chargers, Bills, and Jaguars. All are playing well. All are winning when it matters. The Chiefs? They’re playing catch-up with no margin for error.
And here’s the quiet truth: if they miss the playoffs, it won’t be because Mahomes is done. It won’t be because Reid lost his touch. It’ll be because the league caught up. Because the AFC got deeper. Because the window — once thought to be open for another five years — might be closing faster than anyone expected.
What This Means for Kansas City
For fans, it’s heartbreak. For the organization, it’s a reckoning. The Chiefs have built a culture of winning. But winning requires more than talent. It requires discipline. It requires finishing. And right now, they’re not doing either.
One more win. One more game. One more chance. That’s all they have left.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Chiefs still make the playoffs if they lose one more game?
It’s possible, but unlikely. According to the New York Times simulator, a single loss after Week 13 drops their playoff odds to 68% — but tiebreakers work against them. Even an 11-6 record doesn’t guarantee a spot unless they win out, because they’ve lost head-to-head to all three current AFC wild card teams. A 10-7 finish probably isn’t enough.
Why are the Chiefs’ tiebreakers so bad?
The Chiefs lost directly to the Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, and Jacksonville Jaguars — all of whom are currently ahead of them in the AFC standings. Since tiebreakers start with head-to-head results, Kansas City would lose any tiebreaker scenario involving those teams, no matter their overall record. That’s a massive disadvantage.
How does this compare to past Chiefs seasons?
Before 2014, the Chiefs hadn’t made the playoffs since 2010. Since Mahomes became starter in 2018, they’ve reached the AFC Championship four times and won two Super Bowls. This is the first time since 2013 that their postseason fate isn’t in their own hands — and the first time they’ve needed to win every remaining game just to have a shot.
What’s the biggest hurdle left on their schedule?
The December 14 home game against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are fighting for their own playoff life, and they’ve beaten the Chiefs twice in the last three years. With both teams needing wins, this isn’t just a game — it’s a de facto elimination match. Lose here, and the Chiefs’ chances plummet below 20%.
Is Patrick Mahomes to blame for this slump?
No — but he’s not immune. Mahomes threw two interceptions against Dallas and missed open receivers in key moments. Still, the offensive line has been inconsistent, and the defense has allowed 30+ points in three of the last five games. This is a team-wide issue, not a quarterback crisis. The system is still elite — it’s just not clicking under pressure.
What happens if the Chiefs miss the playoffs?
It would be a seismic shock to the NFL. Andy Reid’s streak of 11 straight playoff appearances as Kansas City’s head coach would end. The franchise’s decade-long dominance would be questioned. And with Mahomes under contract through 2031, the organization would face pressure to rebuild around him — not around a fading core. This isn’t just about 2024. It’s about the future of a dynasty.
Written by Gareth O'Dell
View all posts by: Gareth O'Dell